Where Turkey stands as the Syrian government falls to opposition rebels

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government is a cause for celebration Syrian refugees in TurkeyAs the end of his 24-year reign raises hopes of a return home. In Kilis, a Turkish border town, large crowds waved Syrian and Turkish flags in jubilation on Sunday.
Refugees return home
Hatay province, another region along the Turkish-Syrian border, also saw emotional gatherings. Refugees expressed a collective desire to rebuild their lives in Syria. “We are free now, everyone should return to their homelands,” Mahmoud Esma told DHA news agency at the Silwegozu border gate.
Turkey, which hosts around 3 million Syrian refugees, has supported opposition groups since the civil war began in 2011. The support is aligned with Ankara’s long-term goal of stabilizing its southern borders and pushing back Kurdish forces affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). ), sworn enemy of Turkey.
Turkey’s critical role
While Turkish officials deny direct involvement in the rebel offensive, analysts suggest the operation could not have succeeded without Ankara’s tacit approval. “All statements claiming that Turkey instigated or supported this are false. They are all lies,” Omer Celik, a spokesman for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party, said.
Turkey has long worked with the Syrian National Army, its proxy force, and reportedly exerts influence over Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. (HTS), the jihadist group led a 10-day march on Damascus. HTS is listed as a terrorist organization by Turkey but has collaborated with Ankara in northern Syria.
Speaking in Qatar, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reaffirmed Turkey’s support for the unity of Syria and the well-being of its people. “So millions of Syrians who were forced to leave their homes can return to their lands,” he said.
Risks and challenges
The fall of Assad’s government brings potential risks, including the possibility of a new wave of refugees if chaos ensues. According to Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, Turkey’s immediate focus is on avoiding the regional disintegration of Syria.
“Turkey wants to avoid the division of Syria at any cost,” Ulgen said, emphasizing concerns over PKK-linked Kurdish militias such as the YPG, which dominate northeast Syria.
Turkey’s balancing act with global powers also comes into play. While Russia, Assad’s main ally, has not accused Turkey of aggression, analysts believe this reflects Moscow’s efforts to maintain its strategic ties with Ankara. “I don’t think this creates a breaking point in Turkish-Russian relations,” Ulgen added.
An uncertain future
Turkey’s strategic objectives—securing its borders and ensuring the safe return of refugees—remain a priority. However, the role of HTS, a group with its own agenda, complicates matters. “HTS is a wild card. Does Turkey really want a jihadist organization to run a neighboring country? asked Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkish program.
As Syrian refugees celebrate their first glimpse of hope in years, the road ahead for both Syria and Turkey is fraught with uncertainty. The question remains: Will this turn bring lasting stability or new challenges?